Appeal to Probability

🎰

Gambler's Fallacy

Common Logically close Same family Often confused

Assumes past random outcomes make a different future outcome more likely, even when events are independent.

🛝

Slippery Slope

Common Logically close Same family Often confused

Claims a relatively small first step will inevitably trigger a chain of extreme consequences.

🔗

False Cause

Logically close Same family Similar wording

Treats two things as causally connected without enough evidence that one really caused the other.

🤨

Personal Incredulity

Common Logically close Same family Similar wording

Treats something as false simply because it seems hard to imagine, understand, or believe.

🔗

False Cause & False Attribution

Common Same family Similar wording Same category

Treats two things as causally connected, or assigns credit or blame, without enough evidence.

🕵️

Furtive Fallacy

Same family Similar wording Same category

Assumes hidden intent, secret coordination, or deliberate design without sufficient evidence.