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Fallacy Library Gambler's Fallacy
Informal fallacy Commonly Used Fallacy

Gambler's Fallacy

Assumes past random outcomes make a different future outcome more likely, even when events are independent.

Definition

Assumes past random outcomes make a different future outcome more likely, even when events are independent.

Example
The coin has landed on heads five times, so tails is now due.
Extended explanation

How to think about it:

Assumes past random outcomes make a different future outcome more likely, even when events are independent. In practice, the key question is whether the conclusion is supported by evidence and logic, or whether it depends on this reasoning shortcut instead.

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